We Ranked Every ZIP Code Against Its Own Metro. Most of the Signal Was Noise.

July 26, 2026 · Analysis

A metro-level forecast tells you where a market is headed. It does not tell you which neighborhoods inside that metro are actually driving the move, and which are dead weight. We built a score to answer that question, then spent real effort trying to prove it does not work before we published it.

The score is simple on purpose: each ZIP code's home-value gain over the trailing six months, minus its own metro's gain over that same period. ZIP codes beating the metro rank higher. ZIP codes trailing it rank lower. We score it with a one-month lag, because that is how far behind Zillow's published data actually runs, not an idealized same-day number nobody has access to.

How we tested it

We ran this on all 894 US metros Sialim tracks, back to 2003. Not every metro has enough ZIP codes to test a ranking at all: 517 of 894 had a large enough cross-section to check. Of those 517, 338 passed our bar: a positive result over the most recent three years, checked separately after the method was already locked in, and stable across most of those years taken one at a time.

That leaves 179 metros we tested and dropped, because the ranking did not hold up there. We publish the ranking for those metros anyway when asked, with the failure stated plainly, rather than pretending they were never tested.

The signal is real, and it is smaller than the best case suggests

Pooled across all 338 qualifying metros, top-ranked ZIP codes beat their metro about as often as bottom-ranked ones fell behind it, but the strength varies enormously by market. Miami is the standout: its top-ranked ZIP codes beat the metro 81% of the time, and its bottom-ranked ones fell behind it 86% of the time, the second-strongest result of any metro we tested. Most qualifying metros show a real edge, just a smaller one.

One result deserves a specific flag rather than a victory lap. The single strongest metro in our raw ranking is Eureka, CA, a small market where the recent test window looked almost perfect. Its longer-run result is much weaker than its recent one, the kind of pattern you see when a small metro gets lucky in a short window rather than when a method is genuinely working there. We are not featuring Eureka as a flagship result until more years of data settle the question, even though, by the numbers alone, it currently outranks Miami.

Analyze any investment property in seconds - Sponsored

Where it breaks: 2022

This ranking is not reliable in every environment. Across all 50 of our largest metros, ranking accuracy fell from a strong, typical track record to essentially a coin flip in 2022, the year mortgage rates moved the fastest in our data. Miami's own 2022 result went briefly negative before recovering fully in 2023 and staying strong through 2024. A method that hides its worst year is not one you should trust with money. We disclose this on every metro report we publish, Miami included.

What this is not

This is a ranking of relative momentum, not a price forecast. Sialim's forecasting engine works at the metro level and answers a different question: where is the whole market headed. This screen answers a narrower one: inside that metro, which ZIP codes are actually participating in the move. Both are backtested. Neither is investment advice.

Curious whether your metro qualifies? Look up your city →

Data: Zillow ZHVI, via Zillow Research. Backtest covers 2003–2026 across 894 US metros; 517 had enough ZIP-level data to test, 338 qualified for publication. Forecasts and rankings are model output, not investment advice.