Where US home values are headed
Sialim forecasts the typical home value for 894 US metros at three horizons: next month, next quarter, and one year out, using 26 years of Zillow price history plus mortgage rates, for-sale inventory, and labor data. Every forecast is backtested and shows its own accuracy. Each dot below is a metro, scored 0–100 on forecast appreciation, price stability, affordability, labor trend, and inventory pressure. Current forecast month: July 2026. Zillow publishes each month's home value data in the middle of the following month; forecasts here roll forward within a day of each release, and a July 2026 forecast stays a live, ungraded prediction until that month's data arrives.
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Strongest — July 2026
| Metro | Current value | Forecast | 1-month change | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamestown, ND | $233,382 | $240,665 | +3.12% | Overheating |
| Mexico, MO | $195,920 | $200,250 | +2.21% | Stabilizing |
| Coldwater, MI | $210,576 | $214,952 | +2.08% | Stabilizing |
| Maysville, KY | $173,451 | $176,578 | +1.80% | Neutral |
| Stevens Point, WI | $327,042 | $332,878 | +1.78% | Neutral |
| Freeport, IL | $162,063 | $164,825 | +1.70% | Overheating |
| Altoona, PA | $180,366 | $183,206 | +1.57% | Neutral |
| Ottawa, KS | $267,520 | $271,715 | +1.57% | Overheating |
| Dumas, TX | $192,183 | $195,035 | +1.48% | Stabilizing |
| McComb, MS | $116,991 | $118,583 | +1.36% | Neutral |
Weakest — July 2026
| Metro | Current value | Forecast | 1-month change | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarksdale, MS | $50,265 | $47,302 | -5.89% | Cooling |
| Rio Grande City, TX | $141,948 | $136,065 | -4.14% | Recovering |
| Indianola, MS | $83,683 | $81,494 | -2.62% | Cooling |
| Blytheville, AR | $119,742 | $116,882 | -2.39% | Neutral |
| Raymondville, TX | $174,338 | $170,525 | -2.19% | Cooling |
| Grants, NM | $159,075 | $155,950 | -1.96% | Cooling |
| Murray, KY | $173,351 | $170,000 | -1.93% | Neutral |
| Selinsgrove, PA | $247,974 | $243,503 | -1.80% | Cooling |
| Lumberton, NC | $140,036 | $137,533 | -1.79% | Recovering |
| Zapata, TX | $127,919 | $125,696 | -1.74% | Neutral |
Highest opportunity scores — July 2026
| # | Metro | Score | Forecast next month |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muscatine, IA | 88.7 | +1.16% |
| 2 | Richmond, IN | 83.9 | +0.52% |
| 3 | Ashland, OH | 83.6 | +0.89% |
| 4 | Indiana, PA | 83.2 | +1.24% |
| 5 | Clinton, IA | 82.9 | +0.51% |
| 6 | Defiance, OH | 82.8 | +0.41% |
| 7 | Erie, PA | 82.6 | +0.55% |
| 8 | Elmira, NY | 82.2 | +0.51% |
| 9 | Iowa City, IA | 81.6 | +0.82% |
| 10 | Poplar Bluff, MO | 81.6 | +0.41% |
Scores are percentile blends across 854 mapped metros: forecast appreciation 35%, price stability 15%, affordability 20%, state labor trend 15%, inventory pressure 15%. Descriptive rankings, not investment advice. Method details on the methodology page.
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Largest 30 metros — July 2026
| Metro | Current value | Forecast | 1-month change | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York, NY | $735,003 | $736,694 | +0.23% | Overheating |
| Los Angeles, CA | $968,028 | $967,205 | -0.09% | Neutral |
| Chicago, IL | $359,888 | $360,942 | +0.29% | Overheating |
| Dallas, TX | $366,701 | $365,605 | -0.30% | Neutral |
| Houston, TX | $308,933 | $307,777 | -0.37% | Neutral |
| Washington, DC | $584,684 | $584,450 | -0.04% | Cooling |
| Philadelphia, PA | $394,762 | $395,481 | +0.18% | Neutral |
| Miami, FL | $476,598 | $476,383 | -0.04% | Stabilizing |
| Atlanta, GA | $383,050 | $382,307 | -0.19% | Neutral |
| Boston, MA | $746,595 | $746,909 | +0.04% | Cooling |
| Phoenix, AZ | $447,054 | $445,476 | -0.35% | Neutral |
| San Francisco, CA | $1,142,320 | $1,143,326 | +0.09% | Stabilizing |
| Riverside, CA | $586,047 | $585,063 | -0.17% | Stabilizing |
| Detroit, MI | $271,675 | $271,691 | +0.01% | Stabilizing |
| Seattle, WA | $745,263 | $742,326 | -0.39% | Cooling |
| Minneapolis, MN | $395,726 | $395,666 | -0.01% | Cooling |
| San Diego, CA | $940,998 | $940,377 | -0.07% | Cooling |
| Tampa, FL | $361,156 | $360,156 | -0.28% | Neutral |
| Denver, CO | $572,682 | $571,765 | -0.16% | Cooling |
| Baltimore, MD | $407,614 | $407,439 | -0.04% | Stabilizing |
| St. Louis, MO | $280,016 | $280,604 | +0.21% | Overheating |
| Orlando, FL | $387,301 | $386,189 | -0.29% | Neutral |
| Charlotte, NC | $390,942 | $389,933 | -0.26% | Neutral |
| San Antonio, TX | $280,370 | $280,447 | +0.03% | Neutral |
| Portland, OR | $553,092 | $552,368 | -0.13% | Cooling |
| Sacramento, CA | $584,122 | $583,555 | -0.10% | Cooling |
| Pittsburgh, PA | $235,539 | $235,581 | +0.02% | Stabilizing |
| Cincinnati, OH | $313,303 | $313,325 | +0.01% | Stabilizing |
| Austin, TX | $426,944 | $424,651 | -0.54% | Cooling |
| Las Vegas, NV | $430,436 | $428,469 | -0.46% | Neutral |