Charlotte, NC Housing Market Forecast — September 2026
Typical home value $384,458 as of August 2026 · Cooling
Blue: typical Charlotte home value (Zillow ZHVI, smoothed and seasonally adjusted), last 10 years. Amber dash: forecast path through September 2027; dotted lines mark the 80% confidence range, which widens with the horizon.
Why the model sees it this way
Sialim's model forecasts the typical Charlotte home value will hold near flat in September 2026, from $384,458 to about $384,140. The 80% confidence range runs from $383,861 to $384,494.
Prices have been slipping, down an average of 0.21% per month over the past three months, and the market is down 0.5% from a year ago.
The 30-year mortgage rate sits near 6.7% (restrictive for affordability); for-sale inventory is up 10% year over year, which adds downward pressure on prices; national unemployment is 4.1%. These conditions feed into this metro's forecast, since the macro-augmented model beat the price-only model in backtesting here.
Over the most recent six-month test window, this model's predictions for Charlotte were off by 0.7% on average. Smaller is better; anything under 1% is strong for monthly home values.
How this compares with Zillow's forecast
| Horizon | Sialim | Zillow's forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Next month | -0.08% | -0.10% |
| Three months | -0.29% | 0.00% |
| Twelve months | -2.35% | +0.70% |
The two forecasts disagree on Charlotte's twelve-month direction. Sialim projects -2.35%; Zillow's published forecast shows +0.70%. Disagreements like this get graded here as actuals arrive. Zillow forecast © Zillow, shown for comparison; horizons are aligned to the nearest published month. Agreement or disagreement between the two models is a useful signal either way.
Nearby NC metros
Analyze any investment property in seconds - Sponsored
Get the new Charlotte forecast in your inbox each month, plus the metros that moved most.
No spam, one email a month, unsubscribe anytime.
Tools for this market
Some links above are partner links; Sialim may earn a commission at no cost to you. Partners never influence forecasts or scores.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Charlotte home value forecast for September 2026?
$384,140, a -0.08% change from the latest value of $384,458. The 80% confidence range is $383,861 to $384,494.
Is the Charlotte housing market cooling or heating up?
Sialim classifies Charlotte as "Cooling". Prices have been slipping and Sialim's model forecasts further softness.
What is the Charlotte home price forecast for 2027?
Sialim's model projects $375,425 by September 2027, a -2.35% change from today's $384,458. The 80% range is $364,310 to $390,180; year-ahead forecasts carry much wider uncertainty than next-month calls.
How accurate is this forecast?
Over the most recent six-month test window, this model's Charlotte predictions were off by 0.7% on average.
Model details
Forecasts come from Sialim's proprietary forecasting engine, which runs several competing model specifications for every metro, backtests them against what actually happened, and publishes the winner for each horizon. Trained on 320 monthly observations (2000-01-31 to 2026-08-31). This metro's market heat index reads 46, with 0.3% of listings showing a price cut. See the methodology for how forecasts are built, and the ZHVI guide for what the underlying index measures.
Forecasts are model output, not advice. Data: Zillow ZHVI (© Zillow), Freddie Mac via FRED, US Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED.