Vernon, TX Housing Market Forecast — September 2026
Typical home value $107,016 as of August 2026 · Cooling
Blue: typical Vernon home value (Zillow ZHVI, smoothed and seasonally adjusted), last 10 years. Amber dash: forecast path through September 2027; dotted lines mark the 80% confidence range, which widens with the horizon.
Why the model sees it this way
Sialim's model forecasts the typical Vernon home value will fall 0.4% in September 2026, from $107,016 to about $106,621. The 80% confidence range runs from $106,039 to $107,364.
Prices rose an average of 0.19% per month over the past three months, and the market is up 2.7% from a year ago.
The 30-year mortgage rate sits near 6.7% (restrictive for affordability); for-sale inventory is down 52% year over year, which supports prices; national unemployment is 4.1%. These conditions feed into this metro's forecast, since the macro-augmented model beat the price-only model in backtesting here.
Over the most recent six-month test window, this model's predictions for Vernon were off by 5.5% on average. Smaller is better; anything under 1% is strong for monthly home values.
How this compares with Zillow's forecast
| Horizon | Sialim | Zillow's forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Next month | -0.37% | -0.20% |
| Three months | -1.05% | +0.50% |
| Twelve months | +0.35% | +0.40% |
Both forecasts point the same direction for Vernon over the next twelve months. Zillow forecast © Zillow, shown for comparison; horizons are aligned to the nearest published month. Agreement or disagreement between the two models is a useful signal either way.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Vernon home value forecast for September 2026?
$106,621, a -0.37% change from the latest value of $107,016. The 80% confidence range is $106,039 to $107,364.
Is the Vernon housing market cooling or heating up?
Sialim classifies Vernon as "Cooling". Prices have been slipping and Sialim's model forecasts further softness.
What is the Vernon home price forecast for 2027?
Sialim's model projects $107,390 by September 2027, a +0.35% change from today's $107,016. The 80% range is $102,007 to $112,494; year-ahead forecasts carry much wider uncertainty than next-month calls.
How accurate is this forecast?
Over the most recent six-month test window, this model's Vernon predictions were off by 5.5% on average.
Model details
Forecasts come from Sialim's proprietary forecasting engine, which runs several competing model specifications for every metro, backtests them against what actually happened, and publishes the winner for each horizon. Trained on 207 monthly observations (2009-06-30 to 2026-08-31). This metro's market heat index reads 74, with 0.1% of listings showing a price cut. See the methodology for how forecasts are built, and the ZHVI guide for what the underlying index measures.
Forecasts are model output, not advice. Data: Zillow ZHVI (© Zillow), Freddie Mac via FRED, US Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED.