Miami Prices Slipped Last Year. Its Million-Dollar ZIP Codes Kept Climbing.

September 28, 2026 · Metro Deep Dive

Miami home prices slipped 0.5% over the past year while the median US metro gained 2.6%. In Miami's $1 million-plus ZIP codes, prices kept climbing.

The metro figure averages 180 ZIP codes, and strong gains at the top net out against weaker ones elsewhere. All four of these rank in the top 7 of those 180 on our ZIP ranking, which measures how fast each ZIP's prices moved against the metro over six months. The five leaders sit in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties: two in Boca Raton, plus West Palm Beach, Coral Gables and Miami 33133.

We found this while building the first Sialim Metro Deep Dive, a monthly report that takes one metro apart. The full Miami issue is free to read.

The call: Miami is strengthening

Miami prices slipped 0.5% over the past year while the median US metro gained 2.6%. The turn comes from supply. For-sale inventory sits 14% below a year ago and new listings are down 3%, while newly pending sales are up 3.7%. Buyers hold leverage on price: homes take 51 days to go under contract, against 23 for the median metro, and close at 95.7% of list.

We expect +0.4% in September and +0.7% by December. Our 12-month view is flat at -0.1%, with an 80% range from $457,000 to $496,000. That range spans 8%, so treat the 12-month call as low-confidence.

Our 12-month call sits below history

We searched 26 years of data for the moments Miami looked like it does now. The closest match, May 2012, gained 14.5% over the following year. February 2025 lost 4.4%. September 2019 gained 5.3%. Across 4,217 similar setups in 772 metros since 2001, prices rose over the next year 66% of the time, with a median gain of 1.3%. Our flat 12-month call sits below that history, and the report prints both numbers side by side.

What we got wrong

Our last three published Miami forecasts all came in below the actual move, and Zillow landed closer in June and July. The issue shows every miss next to Zillow's. We upgraded the forecasting model this month, and September will be its first live test in Miami. You can follow the grading on our public accuracy ledger.

The ZIP ranking has limits too. In 23 years of Miami data, the top 20% of ZIPs it flagged beat the metro over the following year 80% of the time. In 2022, when mortgage rates jumped, that fell to 43%. A fast rate shock would weaken it again.

What every issue covers

Each issue follows the same eight sections: the call, the forecast and how it changed since last month, historical analogs, the drivers behind the numbers, five peer metros, ZIP codes pulling ahead or falling behind, our accuracy in that market, and a checklist of triggers that would change the call. Each trigger shows today's value, so you can check it yourself next month. You also get a one-page tear sheet to forward to a client or a partner.

Get a deep dive for your metro

We plan to offer the Metro Deep Dive as a subscription: one metro for $19.90 a month. Each month you get a new issue for that metro by email, as a PDF, after Zillow releases its data. We haven't opened subscriptions yet. Tell us which metro you want, and we'll launch once enough readers ask. Any of the 894 metros we forecast qualifies.

All figures are statistical estimates from Zillow Research data (© Zillow), Freddie Mac and the BLS, with ZIP data through July 2026 and metro data through August 2026. Nothing here is investment advice.